Salmon feed sales is another good indicator on medium-term harvest volumes.
I often use data on feed when I project and time supply and volumes.
Below is the monthly development in feed sales in the period 2013-15. Hover the mouse over the charts to see the volumes in each month.
On an accumulated basis, we can see that salmon feed sales in 2015 are exceeding sales in 2014 by 2% YTD.
Feed sales volume in Norway are published on a monthly basis from both Kontali and FHL. Sometimes, weekly feed sales data are also made available from FHL, via the publication Akvafakta which is released every Tuesday. Due to the seasonality in seawater temperatures and biomass, feed sales in % of the annual sales are typically high in Q3 and low in Q1.
Salmon feed sales and temperatures are linked
Seawater temperatures drive feed sales. If we look at the average temperature YTD it is 0.3 degrees higher than in 2014.
As a rule of thumb, 1 degree change in temperatures increases the relative the growth with 1.5% per month. On a biomass of 600,000 tonnes, a one degree change would imply a 9,000 tonnes production gain (1 degree x 1.5% x 600,000).
Remember that Marine Harvest and Bakkafrost are partly self-supplied with own feed. SalMar, Cermaq, Grieg Seafood, Lerøy Seafood, Norway Royal Salmon and Scottish Salmon Company buys feed from external suppliers, i.e. EWOS, Skretting or Biomar.